Over a span of four trading days, $1.61 billion has flowed into the U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF. From August 17 to 20, the net inflows were recorded at $297.6 million, $189.3 million, $517.2 million, and $606.3 million respectively. The flow of funds into the ETF has emerged as a key variable in the supply and demand dynamics of BTC. However, the real yield on U.S. long-term Treasury bonds remains high at 2.973%, creating uncertainty regarding the impact of ETF demand on BTC prices. The real yield on 30-year TIPS has increased by 50 basis points over the past six months, which may prompt investors to reassess their asset allocation between risk assets like BTC and long-term Treasuries. Additionally, the supply of Treasuries at the end of August is acting as a burden on the market, with auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year bonds occurring simultaneously, intensifying competition between risk assets and safe havens. BTC prices have been moving in tandem with ETF inflows, trading around $77,000 during intraday sessions on the 21st. The market interprets that while ETF inflows indicate a buying channel for institutional funds, the high real yields suggest a potential shift of funds into Treasuries.
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