AI Infrastructure Demand Surpasses Internet, Broad Programming Drives ARR Growth

Analysis indicates that in the AI semiconductor and infrastructure cycle, the demand for AI infrastructure continues to outlast the internet era, as user penetration and per capita token multiplication significantly raise the ceiling. User penetration has exceeded 50%, with growth primarily coming from the still nascent per capita token. The median monthly AI spending per employee in U.S. companies is about $12, which could potentially approach 10% of white-collar salaries in the long term, roughly $1,000 per month, leaving nearly two orders of magnitude for growth. Unlike the flat subscription model of the internet, the high costs of AI inference result in higher marginal costs for single access, necessitating greater infrastructure intensity. After developers program, the next phase of ARR growth will mainly come from broad programming, where non-programmers utilize programming infrastructure to complete cross-industry non-programming tasks, making programming the default execution core for agents. Tasks related to broad programming account for approximately 60% to 70% of ARR. As of June 2026, Codex accounts for 64% of the total output tokens from OpenAI's enterprise clients, combining Codex and ChatGPT; since February, Codex's weekly active growth in fields such as law, sales recruitment, and marketing has far outpaced that of engineering. In Anthropic's revenue, narrow development/software accounts for about 40%, with financial insurance exceeding 20%, and there are also considerable shares in law, life sciences, and retail. The demand-side token growth logic remains, with a high overlap between funders and beneficiaries.

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