Bitcoin Rises 7.5% in July, Faces Volatility in August

Bitcoin closed July with an increase of approximately 7.5%. Despite facing negative factors such as expectations of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, rising bond yields, AI trading pullbacks, and the Coldcard security incident, it managed to maintain its gains. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that some resilience stems from the position structure; the sell-off at the end of June led to a significant clearing of positions by derivatives traders when BTC fell below $58,000 on July 1, with leverage in the crypto market being much lower than in the stock market. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty remains the dominant theme. Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, believes the market may enter a "new volatility mechanism," with investors oscillating between expectations of rate cuts, pauses, and hikes. This uncertainty could continue to exert pressure on high-beta assets like BTC. Bitfinex analysts expect that ahead of next week's U.S. employment report, investors will maintain a defensive posture, and the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's path will influence the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, stated that the baseline scenario for August is range-bound volatility, unless real yields decline or ETF fund flows turn positive. The market can digest a neutral Federal Reserve stance but cannot simultaneously bear a strong dollar, higher real yields, and weak ETF demand.

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