Galaxy Research 2025 Prediction: Bitcoin to Surge to $185,000, Ethereum to Break $5,500
Original Source: Galaxy Research
Original Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow
2025 Cryptocurrency Predictions from @glxyresearch covering Bitcoin and Ethereum price trends, ETHBTC ratio, Dogecoin and D.O.G.E., stablecoins, DeFi, L2 solutions, policy, venture capital, and more. Here is a summary of our predictions recently shared with @galaxyhq clients and partners:
Bitcoin Price Expected to Break $150,000 in the First Half of 2025 and Reach or Exceed $185,000 by Q4
Institutional, corporate, and national adoption will be a key driver for Bitcoin reaching new highs in 2025. Since its inception, Bitcoin has consistently outpaced all other asset classes in terms of value appreciation, especially the S&P 500 and gold, a trend that will continue in 2025. Bitcoin's market cap is expected to reach 20% of the total gold market cap.
- @intangiblecoins


Total Assets Under Management (AUM) for US Spot Bitcoin ETP Expected to Exceed $250 Billion in 2025
In 2024, Bitcoin ETP products attracted over $36 billion in net inflows, making it the best-performing ETP product suite in history. Many top global hedge funds (such as Millennium, Tudor, and D.E. Shaw) have opted for Bitcoin ETP, and according to 13F filings, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) also holds relevant positions. Within just one year, the AUM of Bitcoin ETP is only $24 billion (19%) away from surpassing the total size of all US physical gold ETPs.
- @intangiblecoins

Bitcoin Set to Once Again Be One of the Best-Performing Assets Globally on a Risk-Adjusted Basis in 2025
Bitcoin's outstanding performance is not only due to record-breaking capital inflows but also driven by the 2024 price surge. Based on risk-adjusted return metrics, Bitcoin ranks third globally among assets, trailing only a few top-tier assets. MicroStrategy, the self-proclaimed "Bitcoin Treasury" company, has particularly strong performance in terms of Sharpe ratio.
- @intangiblecoins

At Least One Top Wealth Management Platform Will Recommend Clients Allocate 2% or More of Their Portfolio to Bitcoin by 2025
Due to factors such as investment familiarity, internal education, and compliance requirements, currently no major wealth management firm formally includes a Bitcoin allocation in its investment advice portfolios. However, this situation will change by 2025, further driving inflows into U.S. physically-backed Bitcoin ETPs and AUM growth.
- @intangiblecoins
Five Nasdaq 100 Companies and Five Nations Will Announce Adding Bitcoin to Their Balance Sheet or Sovereign Wealth Fund
Whether for strategic needs, portfolio diversification, or considerations for trade settlement, Bitcoin will gradually enter the balance sheets of major corporations and national-level investors. Particularly, non-aligned nations with large sovereign wealth funds, or even nations in opposition to the U.S., will actively acquire Bitcoin through mining or other means.
- JW

Bitcoin Developers Will Reach Consensus on the Next Protocol Upgrade by 2025
Since 2020, Bitcoin core developers have been discussing how to enhance transaction programmability by introducing opcodes. By the end of 2024, the most supported opcodes include OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347). Although soft fork consensus in Bitcoin is extremely rare and time-consuming, it is expected that consensus will be reached in 2025, collectively driving the introduction of OP_CTV, OP_CSFS, and/or OP_CAT. However, this upgrade will not be activated in 2025.
- @hiroto_btc
More Than Half of the Top 20 Market Cap Bitcoin Mining Companies Will Announce Transformation or Partnerships with Hyperscalers, AI, or HPC Companies by 2025
With the increasing computational demands of AI, Bitcoin miners will gradually transform existing facilities, build new infrastructure, or collaborate with HPC companies to deploy mining farms. This trend will constrain the annual growth rate of the global hash rate, with the global hash rate expected to reach 1.1 zetahash by the end of 2025.
These predictions outline a possible blueprint for the cryptocurrency market in 2025, full of opportunities and challenges.
- @intangiblecoins, @SimritDhinsa
The Bitcoin DeFi Market Size is Expected to Double by 2025
By the end of 2024, over $11 billion worth of wrapped Bitcoin (e.g., WBTC) has been locked in DeFi smart contracts. Of this, over 70% of the locked Bitcoin is used as collateral for lending protocols. Additionally, through Bitcoin's largest staking protocol, Babylon, there are around $4.2 billion in deposits. The current valuation of the Bitcoin DeFi market is $15.4 billion and is expected to experience significant growth by 2025. This growth will come from multiple directions, including existing DeFi protocols on Ethereum L1/L2, new DeFi protocols on Bitcoin L2, and staking layers similar to Babylon. Key drivers expected to double the market include a 150% year-over-year growth in cbBTC supply, a 30% increase in WBTC supply, Babylon reaching a TVL of $8 billion, and a new Bitcoin L2 network achieving a $4 billion DeFi TVL.
- @hiroto_btc

Ethereum Price Expected to Break $5,500 in 2025
With regulatory pressures easing in the DeFi and staking space, Ethereum is poised to hit a new all-time high in 2025. Collaboration between DeFi and traditional finance may unfold in a new regulatory sandbox environment, allowing traditional capital markets to dive deeper into public blockchains, with Ethereum and its ecosystem being the primary beneficiaries. Simultaneously, enterprises will gradually explore Ethereum-based Layer 2 networks. Some blockchain-based games may find product-market fit, and NFT trading volume will see a significant rebound.
Ethereum Staking Rate Expected to Exceed 50% by 2025
The U.S. government may provide clearer regulatory guidance for the crypto industry, such as allowing ETH held in spot ETH ETPs to be staked. The demand for staking will continue to grow next year, with the staked Ethereum amount potentially exceeding half of its circulating supply by the end of 2025. This will prompt Ethereum developers to consider adjusting the network's monetary policy more seriously. Additionally, the rise in the staking rate will further drive demand and value flow into staking pools (such as Lido and Coinbase) and re-staking protocols (such as EigenLayer and Symbiotic).
-@christine_dkim

ETH/BTC Ratio to Fall Below 0.03 in 2025 but Recover to Above 0.06 by Year End
The ETH/BTC ratio is one of the most closely watched trading pairs in the cryptocurrency market. Since Ethereum completed the "Merge" upgrade in 2022 and transitioned to proof of stake, this ratio has been consistently declining. However, a shift in the regulatory environment is expected to particularly support Ethereum and its application layer, especially DeFi, reigniting investor interest in the world's second-largest blockchain.
- @intangiblecoins

L2 Economic Activity to Surpass Other Alt L1 Networks in 2025
The fee proportion of L2 networks (currently in the mid-single digits) is expected to surpass 25% of the total fees of Alt L1 networks by the end of the year. As L2 networks near their scaling limits early in the year, transaction fees may spike frequently, prompting network adjustments to gas limits and blob market parameters. However, technical solutions such as the Reth client or alternative virtual machines like Arbitrum Stylus will enhance Rollup efficiency, keeping transaction costs within acceptable ranges.
- @FullNodeChuck

DeFi May Enter a "Dividend Era" in 2025, with On-Chain Applications Expected to Distribute at Least $1 Billion in Value to Users and Token Holders
As DeFi regulation gradually clarifies, the value-sharing mechanisms of on-chain applications will expand. Projects like Ethena and Aave have begun discussing or implementing fee mechanisms through proposals that will allow users to directly benefit. Other protocols that previously opposed such mechanisms (such as Uniswap and Lido) may reconsider their positions due to regulatory clarity and competitive pressures. A more relaxed regulatory environment and increased on-chain activity indicate that protocols may engage in buybacks and direct revenue distribution at a higher frequency.
- @ZackPokorny_

On-Chain Governance May Experience a Revival in 2025, as Applications Explore Governance Models Based on Futarchy
The total number of active voters in on-chain governance is expected to grow by at least 20%. On-chain governance has long faced two main issues: low participation and lack of voting diversity (most proposals pass with overwhelming support). However, with easing regulatory pressure and the success of Polymarket, these two issues are expected to improve by 2025. By then, more applications will transition from a traditional governance model to a futarchy governance model, enhancing voting diversity and optimizing governance effectiveness.
- @ZackPokorny_

- @FullNodeChuck
- @hiroto_btc
It is expected that the world's top four custodian banks will start offering digital asset custody services in 2025
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) plans to provide a policy path for national banks to custody digital assets, which will drive the world's top four custodian banks—BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, and Citibank—to launch digital asset custody services in 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
It is expected that at least ten stablecoins supported by traditional finance will be launched in 2025
From 2021 to 2024, the stablecoin market has grown rapidly, with 202 projects currently existing, some of which have close ties to traditional finance (TradFi). Not only is the number of projects increasing, but the growth rate of their transaction volume far exceeds that of traditional payment networks, such as ACH (annual growth of about 1%) and Visa (annual growth of about 7%). By 2024, stablecoins are gradually integrating into the global financial system. For example, the US-chartered FV Bank already supports direct stablecoin deposits, and Japan's top three banks are cooperating with the Pax project and SWIFT to achieve faster and lower-cost cross-border fund transfers. Payment platforms are also actively building stablecoin infrastructure, such as PayPal launching the PYUSD stablecoin on the Solana blockchain, and Stripe acquiring Bridge company to natively support stablecoins. In addition, asset management giants like VanEck and BlackRock are also partnering with stablecoin projects, actively positioning themselves in this field. As the regulatory environment becomes clearer, traditional financial institutions will further integrate stablecoins into their operations to seize market opportunities and establish a foundation for future development.
- JW

Stablecoin Supply Expected to Double by 2025, Surpassing $400 Billion
Stablecoins are rapidly expanding their usage in the payment, remittance, and settlement sectors. With increasing regulatory clarity around existing stablecoin issuers and traditional banks, trusts, and custodians, the stablecoin supply is expected to experience explosive growth by 2025.
- @intangiblecoins

Tether's Market Share Expected to Drop Below 50% by 2025, Challenged by Yield-bearing Stablecoins
Tether allocates the yield income from its USDT reserves to fund its portfolio, but other stablecoin issuers and protocols are attracting users through revenue-sharing mechanisms, leading existing users to migrate from Tether to yield-bearing solutions. For example, Coinbase's USDC rewards on exchange and wallet balances will serve as a strong incentive, driving not only the entire DeFi sector but also potentially being integrated by fintech firms to enable new business models. In response, Tether may start distributing yield from collateral assets to USDT holders and might even introduce competitive yield-bearing products, such as a market-neutral stablecoin.
- @FullNodeChuck

Crypto Venture Capital (VC) Total Investment Expected to Exceed $150 Billion by 2025, with over 50% YoY Growth
As interest rates decline and the crypto regulatory environment improves, investor interest in venture capital is set to significantly rise, propelling VC activities. Crypto VC fundraising has historically lagged behind broader crypto market trends, but the next four quarters may witness a 'catch-up' phenomenon.
- @hiroto_btc, @intangiblecoins

Stablecoin Legislation Expected to Pass Both Houses of Congress and Be Signed by President Trump in 2025, But Market Structure Legislation May Remain Unpassed
Legislation creating a registration and regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers is expected to pass with bipartisan support and be signed into law before the end of 2025. The growth of USD-backed stablecoin supply will solidify the dollar's global dominance and further foster the development of the U.S. Treasury market. Coupled with relaxed restrictions on banks, trusts, and custodians, stablecoin adoption is expected to significantly rise. However, market structure legislation (such as establishing registration, disclosure, and regulatory requirements for token issuers and exchanges, or adjusting existing SEC and CFTC rules to cover these entities) is complex and may not be passed into law in 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
The U.S. Government is Not Expected to Purchase Bitcoin in 2025, but May Use Existing Reserves to Build Stockpile and Drive Discussions on Expanding Bitcoin Reserve Policy Across Government Departments and Agencies
- @intangiblecoins
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is Expected to Investigate Prometheum, a First-of-Its-Kind "Special Purpose Broker-Dealer"
Prometheum, a previously unknown broker-dealer, received a new type of broker-dealer license in 2023 and publicly endorsed SEC Chairman Gensler's views on the security status of digital assets, leading to widespread scrutiny. Its CEO faced questioning from Republican lawmakers in a congressional hearing, and according to FINRA records, Prometheum's alternative trading system (ATS) has not yet conducted any trades. Republicans have called for investigations by the Department of Justice and SEC into whether Prometheum has "ties to China," while some have pointed out irregularities in its fundraising and financial reports. Regardless of whether an investigation is launched, the "special purpose broker-dealer" license is expected to be revoked in 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
Dogecoin Could See Its First Breakthrough to $1 in 2025, with a Market Cap Expected to Reach $100 Billion
As the world's most famous and longest-running meme coin, Dogecoin's market performance is set to reach new heights in 2025. However, its market cap peak may be surpassed by the budget reduction amount from a "government efficiency department." This department is expected to identify and successfully implement cost-cutting measures in 2025 that exceed Dogecoin's market cap peak.
- @intangiblecoins
Disclaimer: Members of Galaxy and/or Galaxy Research hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin. Many predictions have not been shared, and many more could be made. These predictions are not investment advice and do not constitute an offer, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities (including Galaxy securities). These predictions represent the views of the Galaxy Research team as of December 2024 and do not necessarily reflect the position of Galaxy or any of its affiliates. These predictions will not be updated.
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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.
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