Goldman Sachs Predicts 0.1% Increase in U.S. GDP Growth Rate by 2026

Goldman Sachs estimates that the net effect of AI-related capital expenditures on the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will be approximately 0.1 percentage points by 2026. While the scale of investment is increasing, the analysis suggests that its impact on the overall U.S. economy is limited. Major technology companies are expanding investments in data centers, semiconductors, cloud services, and power infrastructure; however, a significant portion of AI equipment is imported, meaning that corporate spending does not lead to an increase in domestic production. Jessica Lindl, Goldman Sachs' economist responsible for the U.S., stated that the claim that AI contributes to GDP growth while simultaneously stifling other economic activities is exaggerated. This implies that the total amount of AI investment and its contribution to economic growth should be distinguished. Goldman Sachs calculated the net effect on the GDP growth rate for 2026 to be 0.1 percentage points, reflecting that AI investment stifles other capital expenditures and the burden of stock market wealth effects and rising electricity costs on real income and consumption. This analysis does not deny the industrial effects of AI investment but emphasizes that it is difficult to assess macroeconomic contributions based solely on total investment amounts.

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