Grayscale 2025 Q1 Top Picks: 20 Tokens with High Growth Potential

By: blockbeats|2024/12/30 19:15:04
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Original Title: Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q1 2025
Original Source: Grayscale Research
Original Translation: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

Summary:

· The crypto market saw a significant surge in Q4 2024, with the FTSE/Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index demonstrating strong market performance. The rally largely reflected the market's positive response to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

· Competition in the smart contract platform sector remains intense. The price performance of sector leader Ethereum has lagged behind its second-largest competitor Solana, and investors are increasingly focusing on other Layer 1 networks such as Sui and The Open Network (TON).

· Grayscale Research updated the Top 20 token list, representing diversified assets in the cryptocurrency industry that may have high potential in the next quarter. New assets added in Q1 2025 include HYPE, ENA, VIRTUAL, JUP, JTO, and GRASS. All assets in the Top 20 list exhibit high price volatility and should be considered high-risk.

Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index

The Grayscale Crypto Sectors provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the range of investable digital assets and their relationship to underlying technologies. Building on this framework and in collaboration with FTSE Russell, Grayscale has developed the FTSE Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index series to measure and monitor crypto assets (Figure 1). Grayscale Research incorporates this index into its analysis of the digital asset market.

Grayscale 2025 Q1 Top Picks: 20 Tokens with High Growth Potential

Figure 1: Positive Returns of the 2024 Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index

Cryptocurrency valuations soared in the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to the market's positive reaction to the U.S. election results. According to the Crypto Sector Market Index (CSMI), the industry's total market cap increased from $1 trillion to $3 trillion in this quarter. Figure 2 compares the total cryptocurrency market cap to various traditional public and private market asset categories. For instance, the current market value of the digital asset industry is roughly equivalent to the global inflation-linked bond market – more than double the U.S. high-yield bond market, yet still significantly below the global hedge fund industry or the Japanese stock market.

Figure 2: Cryptocurrency Market Cap Increases by $1 Trillion in Q4 2024

Due to the valuation increase, many new tokens met the inclusion criteria of Grayscale's Crypto Sectors framework (which sets a minimum market cap requirement of $1 billion for most tokens). In this quarter's rebalance, Grayscale added 63 new assets to the index series, now totaling 283 tokens. The consumer and culture sectors saw the most new token additions, reflecting the ongoing strong performance of meme coins and the appreciation of various assets related to gaming and social media.

By market cap, the largest new asset in Crypto Sectors is Mantle, an Ethereum Layer 2 protocol, which now meets the minimum liquidity requirement (for more detailed information on Grayscale index inclusion criteria, please refer to here).

Smart Contract Platform Competition

The smart contract platform space may be the most fiercely competitive submarket in the digital asset industry. While 2024 was a milestone year for the leader in this space, Ethereum—receiving approval for a U.S. exchange-traded product (ETP) and undergoing significant upgrades—ETH's performance lags behind some competitors like Solana, the second-largest asset by market cap in the space. Investors are also turning their attention to other L1 networks, including high-performance blockchains like Sui and the blockchain TON integrated with the Telegram platform.

When building infrastructure for application developers, architects of smart contract blockchains face a variety of design choices. These design choices impact the three factors that make up the "blockchain trilemma": network scalability, network security, and network decentralization. For example, prioritizing scalability often manifests as high transaction throughput and low fees (e.g., Solana), while prioritizing decentralization and network security may result in lower throughput and higher fees (e.g., Ethereum). These design choices lead to different block times, transaction throughputs, and average transaction fees (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Smart Contract Platforms Have Different Technical Features

Regardless of design choices and network trade-offs, smart contract platforms derive their value through network fee revenue. While other metrics such as total TVL are also crucial, fee revenue can be seen as a primary driver of token value accumulation in this market segment (related reading: The Value War in Smart Contract Platforms).

As shown in Figure 4, there is a statistical relationship between smart contract platform fee revenue and market capitalization. The stronger the network's ability to generate fee revenue, the greater its ability to pass value to the network in the form of token burning or staking rewards. This quarter, the Top 20 token list listed by Grayscale Research includes some smart contract platform tokens: ETH, SOL, SUI, and OP.

Figure 4: All smart contract platforms are competing for fee revenue

Grayscale Research Top 20 Token List

Each quarter, the Grayscale Research team analyzes hundreds of digital assets to provide insights for the rebalancing process of the FTSE/Grayscale Crypto Sectors index series. Following this process, Grayscale Research generates a list of the top 20 assets within the Crypto Sectors domain. The top 20 represent diversified assets across Crypto Sectors and these assets may have high potential in the upcoming quarter (Figure 4). The selection of this list combines a range of factors, including network growth/adoption, upcoming catalysts, sustainability of fundamentals, token valuation, token supply inflation, and potential tail risks.

In Q1 2025, Grayscale will focus on tokens that are involved in at least one of the following three core market themes:

· The U.S. election and its potential impact on industry regulation, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi) and staking;

· Continued breakthroughs in decentralized AI technology and the use of AI agents in blockchain;

· Growth of the Solana ecosystem.

Based on these themes, the following six assets have been added to the Top 20 list for the first quarter of 2025:

1. Hyperliquid (HYPE): Hyperliquid is an L1 blockchain designed to support on-chain financial applications. Its primary application is a decentralized exchange (DEX) for perpetual futures with a fully on-chain order book.

2. Ethena (ENA): The Ethena protocol has evolved into the new stablecoin USDe, primarily collateralized by Bitcoin and Ethereum hedge positions. Specifically, the protocol holds long positions in Bitcoin and Ether as well as short positions in perpetual futures contracts of the same assets. The staked version of this token provides yield through the price differential between spot and futures.

3. Virtual Protocol (VIRTUAL): Virtual Protocol is a platform built on the Ethereum L2 network Base to create AI agents. These AI agents are designed to mimic human decision-making and autonomously perform tasks. The platform allows for the creation and co-ownership of tokenized AI agents that can interact with their environment and other users.

4. Jupiter (JUP): Jupiter is a top-tier DEX aggregator on Solana with the highest TVL in the network. With retail traders increasingly entering the cryptocurrency market through Solana and speculative activities surrounding Solana-based memecoins and AI agent tokens on the rise, we believe Jupiter is well-positioned to capitalize on this growing market.

5. Jito (JTO): Jito is a liquidity protocol on Solana. Jito has seen significant adoption over the past year and boasts the best financials in the cryptocurrency space, with fee revenue surpassing $5.5 billion in 2024.

6. Grass (GRASS): Grass is a decentralized data network that rewards users for sharing their unused internet bandwidth through a Chrome extension. This bandwidth is used to scrape online data, which is then sold to AI companies and developers for training machine learning models, effectively enabling web data scraping while compensating users.

Figure 5: Top 20 Additions including DeFi Applications, AI Agents, and the Solana Ecosystem

Note: Shadow denotes new tokens coming in the upcoming quarter (Q1 2025). "*" denotes sector-related assets not included in the Crypto Sectors index. Data Source: Artemis, Grayscale Investments. Data as of December 20, 2024, for reference only. Assets are subject to change. Grayscale and its affiliates and clients may hold positions in the digital assets discussed in this document. All Top 20 assets are highly price volatile and should be considered high-risk assets.

In addition to the new themes mentioned above, Grayscale remains bullish on themes from the past few quarters, such as Ethereum scaling solutions, tokenization, and Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN). These themes are still reflected through protocols re-entering the Top 20, such as Optimism, Chainlink, and Helium.

This quarter, we have removed Celo from the Top 20. Grayscale Research continues to be optimistic about these projects and believes they remain integral to the crypto ecosystem. However, the revised Top 20 list may offer a more compelling risk-reward profile in the next quarter.

Investing in crypto assets carries risks, some of which are unique to the asset class, including smart contract vulnerabilities and regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, all assets in the Top 20 exhibit high volatility and should be considered high-risk, making them unsuitable for all investors. Given the risks of the asset class, any investment in digital assets should be considered in the context of a portfolio and with respect to an investor's financial goals.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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