JPMorgan: Bitcoin outperforms gold and silver, with capital flows and momentum showing resilience

JPMorgan stated that under the backdrop of ETF fund outflows, deteriorating liquidity, and institutional deleveraging, gold and silver are under pressure, while Bitcoin shows greater resilience and relatively stable capital inflows.

Gold ETFs recorded nearly $11 billion in net outflows in the three weeks leading up to March, and there was also a significant withdrawal of funds related to silver. Coupled with rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar, this has pushed precious metal prices lower. Meanwhile, Bitcoin funds continue to maintain net inflows, and market momentum is gradually improving. In terms of price performance, Bitcoin initially fell to the $60,000 range alongside risk assets at the onset of geopolitical conflicts but quickly stabilized thereafter, currently oscillating between $68,000 and $70,000, indicating that long-term capital is re-entering the market to support prices after the panic. Additionally, position and momentum data have also diverged, with institutional positions in gold and silver futures significantly declining since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin futures positions have remained stable overall. Trend-following funds have shifted from "overbought" in precious metals to below neutral levels, exacerbating their downward pressure; Bitcoin, on the other hand, has rebounded from the oversold range, with selling pressure easing. Liquidity indicators show that the breadth of the gold market has fallen below that of Bitcoin, and silver liquidity has further weakened. JPMorgan believes that this change highlights Bitcoin's gradually emerging performance characteristics that differ from traditional safe-haven assets in the current macro and geopolitical environment.

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