July Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation Rate Expected at 3.6%
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The inflation rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) in the United States for July is expected to slow to 3.6% year-on-year. This is lower than June's 3.7%, but still significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Oxford Economics forecasts the headline PCE inflation rate for July to be 3.6%, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release personal income and expenditure statistics on August 26 at 9:30 PM. The PCE is an indicator that reflects changes in prices consumers pay for goods and services, and the Federal Reserve uses it as a key metric for interest rate decisions. Currently, the inflation rate shows a downward trend from its peak; however, the mid-3% inflation rate indicates a significant gap from the target, making a policy shift by the Federal Reserve unlikely. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%. JP Morgan expects the core PCE for July to rise by 0.22%, while Citigroup forecasts a 0.15% increase. The market is showing a wait-and-see attitude rather than expectations for interest rate cuts amid slowing inflation. Risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are also reacting sensitively to changes in U.S. inflation and interest rates, with the gold market being influenced by inflation and interest rate trajectories as key variables.
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