Ongoing US-Iran Conflict: Three Scenarios That May Prompt Israeli Involvement

On July 20, the US-Iran conflict has continued for several days, with both sides exercising restraint. The United States has primarily targeted objectives related to the Strait of Hormuz, conducting limited attacks on infrastructure such as bridges and railways. Iran, on the other hand, has attacked US targets in the region, including those in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but has not directly targeted Israel. Both sides maintain an unspoken boundary: the US avoids striking Iran's major infrastructure, while Iran has not expanded its actions to Israeli territory. Analysts believe that factors that may prompt Israeli involvement in the future include: firstly, the US expanding its strike range; if US forces attack Iranian nuclear facilities or ballistic missile programs, it may provoke Iran to escalate its retaliation; secondly, both sides may misjudge the situation and escalate the conflict, with Israel or Iran potentially gaining an advantage through sudden actions, leading to a broader confrontation; thirdly, Israel may proactively seize military opportunities to strike Iranian nuclear facilities and missile capabilities to achieve unfulfilled military objectives. Analysts point out that Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into the conflict, as it is aware of the capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces and Air Force. There is a general consensus that the confrontation between Iran, the US, and regional countries will continue, entering another phase of a long-term game.

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