Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in September at 63%
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Market predictions indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 63%. The trading volume on Polymarket for this related market exceeds $20.3 million, while Kalshi shows a corresponding probability of 65% with a trading volume close to $4.9 million. CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16 is 55.6%, with a 44.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. On July 31, CME FedWatch had an expected probability of 67% for a rate hike. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on August 7 showing that non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged during its meeting on July 28-29, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16.
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