Probability of GPT-6 Public Release by September 30 Rises to 78%

Predictive market traders have priced the probability of OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 before September 30 at approximately 78%. The trading volume in the relevant Polymarket market is about $731,000, an increase of approximately $32,000 from the previous index snapshot, with the probability of a release contract before September 30 rising to 77%. The probability of a release before August 31 was in the mid-30% range, while the probability before August 21 dropped to 15%. The probability of a September release on Myriad also rose to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or release date; its current flagship general model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more powerful pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity assessment. The company also announced the addition of 250 jobs in Dublin, with SoftBank providing financing for its OpenAI-related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.

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