Russian Refined Oil Supply Decreases by 21%, Crude Oil Shipments Increase

Russia's refined oil supply has decreased by 21%, while crude oil shipments have shown a slight increase. Due to drone attacks from Ukraine, Russia's refining capacity has been limited, leading to a reduction in the export of products such as gasoline and diesel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its July oil market report that Russian refining facilities have been affected by the attacks, impacting both exports and domestic fuel supply. The Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA) reported that Russia's crude oil export revenue decreased by 8% in June compared to the previous month, although export volumes increased by 14%. In contrast, refined oil shipments from Russian ports fell by 21%, reaching an all-time low. This situation is more complex than a simple interpretation of a sharp decline in crude oil exports, as greater pressure is emerging in the refined oil sector. The targets of the drone attacks have expanded across Russia, with reports of rising fuel prices and long queues at gas stations. The IEA noted that refined product cracks and refining margins reached a four-year high in early July. Since April 2023, Russia has not disclosed crude oil production data, and energy disruptions must be analyzed by separating crude oil, refined oil, and port-specific flows.