Russia's GDP Growth Slowed to 0.3% in the First Half of 2026

In the first half of 2026, Russia's GDP growth was 0.3%, which is four times lower than last year's figure. In June, the economy grew by 1.1%, but this did not compensate for the decline in the first quarter (-0.2%) and stagnation in April and May. The Ministry of Economic Development has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% to 0.4%, while Sberbank and the Central Bank of Russia estimate potential growth within the range of 0-0.5%. The defense industry is experiencing a slowdown: the production of metal products increased by 8.8% compared to 18% last year, while the production of computers and electronics rose by 4.3% compared to 11.7%. In civilian sectors, there is a decline: clothing production fell by 6.3%, metallurgical production by 9.1%, and the output of petroleum products decreased by 7.7% over the half-year. Alexander Koljandr, director of Eurasia Group, warned of possible bankruptcies of thousands of sellers on the Wildberries marketplace due to attacks by Ukrainian drones, which could lead to debts. It is forecasted that the economy will end the year with zero growth. The Russian interbank market is experiencing a shortage of ruble liquidity due to a record outflow of cash.

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