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    3. Fed's Hawkish Signals Intensify, Dollar Credit and Global Capital Costs Undergo Reassessment

    Fed's Hawkish Signals Intensify, Dollar Credit and Global Capital Costs Undergo Reassessment

    By: rootdata|2026/08/06 06:43:03
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    On August 6, the U.S. ADP reported an increase of 44,000 jobs in July, indicating a continued cooling in the labor market. However, Federal Reserve officials have consistently signaled a hawkish stance. Kashkari, Cook, and Daly all emphasized that if inflation does not improve sustainably, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out, making the market realize that an economic slowdown does not necessarily mean a shift to an accommodative monetary policy.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would maintain its pace of Treasury buybacks and bond issuance, indicating that the market will continue to absorb a large supply of U.S. government bonds in the short term. The persistence of high long-term yields also means that the financial environment is tightening through market mechanisms. What truly impacts global asset valuations now is not just whether the Fed will raise rates, but also the government's massive financing needs, long-term interest rates, and market risk premiums that collectively drive up global capital costs.

    In terms of geopolitics, while Iran and Oman are close to reaching a shipping agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lanes are still under temporary arrangements, and whether full navigation will resume depends on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Even though the risk of supply disruptions has decreased, Iran's attempts to gain more control and charging rights over shipping lanes indicate that uncertainties in the global energy supply chain have not been resolved, and energy prices may still fluctuate due to policy and negotiation processes.

    From a market structure perspective, global funds currently face a high capital cost environment, ongoing government financing, expansion of AI infrastructure, and energy geopolitical risks. Fund allocation will place greater emphasis on capital efficiency and cash flow quality, while high-valued and highly leveraged assets will continue to face significant discount pressure. In the cryptocurrency market, there has been a net inflow of $475 million into ETFs over the past week and $922 million over the past month, indicating that institutional funds are still replenishing risk assets in the short term. However, there has been a cumulative outflow of $7.932 billion over the past quarter, suggesting that large funds maintain a relatively conservative allocation attitude towards the overall market. This also means that the current market is not entering a phase of overall risk appetite recovery, but is continuously seeking a new asset pricing balance amid global liquidity, long-term yields, and policy uncertainties. Bitcoin will still be dominated in the short term by U.S. dollar liquidity, global capital costs, and changes in risk appetite. Whether ETF funds can transition from short-term replenishment to a trend-driven inflow will become an important observation indicator for the subsequent market.

    This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.

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