VanEck reports BTC market stress peaks, signals potential rebound

VanEck stated that stress in the BTC market has reached an extreme level, indicating a possible upcoming rebound. Eight of the 12 capitulation indicators monitored by VanEck have been triggered, suggesting that such market stress has historically preceded price recoveries rather than further declines. The analysis highlighted worsening profitability for miners, increasing realized losses for investors, and signs of sell-side exhaustion, which typically occur near the end of a bear market. Bitcoin's current decline of 30% to 45% from its peak aligns with this historical trend. The activation of two-thirds of the capitulation indicators indicates a shift from profit-taking to broader stop-loss and panic-selling. VanEck noted that markets have often experienced positive returns following similar capitulation phases. The firm views this capitulation as a contrarian buy signal rather than a risk warning. Additionally, VanEck emphasized that miner capitulation and bear markets are not indicative of Bitcoin's structural failure but are recurring aspects of its four-year halving cycle. An earlier report also indicated that a 4% drop in mining hash rate has historically served as a bullish signal.