Whales Bet on Fed Rate Hike Expectations, Shorting Nasdaq with 4% Misjudgment Space

On August 25, Polymarket trader "TwoEyes" placed bets for four consecutive days that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September, and today he reversed to short the Nasdaq. From August 22 to 23, he made approximately $113,700 through 149 purchases, betting on maintaining the interest rate in September, with a weighted probability of about 68.42% at the time of purchase. Early this morning, he invested about $10,050 with an average probability of 67%, continuing to bet that there would be no 25 basis point rate hike in September. The total investment from both rounds is approximately $123,700. Currently, the probability of "maintaining the interest rate in September" is 66.5%, and the probability of "no 25 basis point rate hike in September" is 67.5%. His core position cost is about $151,200, with an unrealized loss of about $4,168. At 4 AM today, his associated address established a short position on the Nasdaq in Hyperliquid, shorting 51.6369 shares of XYZ100 with a 30x leverage, with a position value of about $1,510,800 and an unrealized loss of about $10,800, yielding a return rate of about -21.69%. If the Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate in September, the core predictive position could be redeemable for about $220,200, with a maximum profit of about $69,100. Each 1 point increase in the 51.6369 shares of Nasdaq short positions results in a loss of about $51.64, and the predicted profit could cover a maximum increase of about 1,337.5 points, equivalent to about 4.6% of the entry price of 29,048 points. Currently, XYZ100 is quoted at 29,258 points, consuming about 210 points of buffer, and the remaining profit in the predictive position could cover about 1,127.5 points for the Nasdaq short position, representing about 3.85% of the misjudgment upside space.

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