Argentina is preparing to export up to 10 million tons of corn in August and September as demand shifts toward its supply amid disruptions to Ukrainian shipments tied to Russian strikes on port infrastructure in Odessa, according to the reported trade outlook.

Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn exporter, is finishing the 2025-2026 harvest with output projected at 71.7 million tons, the report said. That would be 20% above the previous record and gives exporters enough supply to push large cargo volumes into foreign markets.

The near-term export push is centered on August and September, when shipments are expected to reach as much as 10 million tons. The report said Argentine sellers are offering corn at competitive prices, helping them win business that might otherwise have gone to Ukraine.

Trade flows into North Africa appear to be a central part of that shift. From January to July 2026, Argentine corn exports to the region rose 45% to 6.5 million tons. Morocco increased imports of Argentine corn by 133% to 1.55 million tons, while Egypt and Algeria raised purchases by 48% and 10% respectively, both to 2.4 million tons.

Ukraine’s corn exports, meanwhile, have come under pressure from repeated attacks on port infrastructure, forcing more shipments onto lower-capacity land routes, according to the report. Last month, Ukrainian supply volumes fell 52%, prompting buyers to seek alternative origins, with Argentina emerging as a primary replacement source.

Why It Matters

This development matters because it links a wartime logistics shock directly to global agricultural trade flows. When a major exporter loses port capacity, buyers do not simply delay purchases; they shift supply chains toward countries that can deliver immediately and at scale. In this case, Argentina’s large harvest and available stocks are allowing it to capture demand that may otherwise have remained with Ukraine.

The broader significance extends beyond corn trade alone. Supply rerouting across staple commodities can affect import costs, shipping patterns, and food-market sensitivity in regions that rely heavily on external grain supply. That keeps grain logistics and Black Sea infrastructure disruption relevant for broader macro watchers, even outside agricultural markets.