分析：美伊达成潜在协议、Strategy 增持比特币等因素或推动比特币重返 8 万美元上方
ChainCatcher 消息，加密分析师 Marcel Pechman 发文表示，比特币冲击 82,000 美元上方失败后遭遇抛售，比特币再次测试 76,000 美元关口，四日内多头仓位清算规模达 4 亿美元，价格较近期高点下跌约 7%。尽管如此，分析认为比特币重回 80,000 美元的条件正在积累，三个潜在催化剂值得关注。
其一，Strategy（MSTR）过去一周斥资 20 亿美元增持比特币，在市场承压之际提供了有效承接。与此同时，该公司还回购了 15 亿美元的 2029 年到期可转换债券，提前偿还部分高级债务有助于降低未来对现有 MSTR 股东的稀释风险，为后续增发新股、继续购入比特币腾出空间。
其二，宏观层面，美国 10 年期国债收益率升至 4.6%，创 16 个月新高，投资者信心正逐步转向稀缺资产。2026 年将有 2 万亿美元长期债务到期，美联储可能需要持续购债，这将进一步削弱美元吸引力。黄金今年 1 月曾大幅拉升，但此后回吐大部分涨幅，而同期比特币从 65,000 美元反弹至 76,500 美元，显示市场对其避险属性的认可度在提升。
其三，伊朗局势若出现转机，风险偏好有望快速回暖。周一布伦特原油价格涨至 113 美元，霍尔木兹海峡谈判出现反复；自今年 2 月下旬美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，油价累计涨幅已超 50%。一旦美伊达成协议，能源价格回落将缓解通胀压力，比特币有望随之重返 80,000 美元上方。目前，美股接近历史高位，而比特币较峰值仍下跌约 39%。
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