Bitcoin: The Next Bottom Could Arrive in October 2026

Benjamin Cowen places Bitcoin at 69 to 73 days from its next bottom. His counter situates this window between October 23 and 27, 2026. At the same time, ETFs and institutional investors have profoundly transformed the Bitcoin market.

This article contains affiliate links that support the work of Journal du Coin.

Bitcoin Reaches Day 1,363, or 69 to 73 Days Before the Expected Bottom {#h-bitcoin-arrive-au-jour-1-363-soit-69-a-73-jours-avant-le-bottom-attendu}

On August 15, 2026, Benjamin Cowen published his count on X. Bitcoin was at day 1,363 of its cycle.

The previous 2 cycles had reached their bottoms at days 1,432 and 1,436.

These two benchmarks are therefore 69 and 73 days. Projected from August 15, the calculation opens a window between October 23 and 27, 2026.

#BTC is now on day 1363 of the cycle (note the last 2 cycles bottomed on days 1432 and 1436) pic.twitter.com/SJh2tPH4Tk --- Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) August 15, 2026

The founder of Into the Cryptoverse relies on a second benchmark. The previous 2 cycles peaked on days 1,059 and 1,168 after their respective bottoms. The current cycle found its peak at day 1,162, a level very close to these two benchmarks.

The current peak has therefore occurred at a time very close to that observed during the previous 2 cycles. Cowen relies on this regularity to defend the maintenance of the 4-year cycle.

The calendar supports this. 2026 is a mid-term U.S. election year, historically the weakest of the 4 years of the cycle.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin lost about 10% in August on average, before continuing its decline in September. Two of the three compared cycles then recorded their bottoms in the fourth quarter.

Cowen also named the level that would invalidate his thesis: a sustained recovery of the 50-week moving average, located around $86,500. Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,300, or about 50% below its record from October 6, 2025.

ETFs and Institutional Investors Blur the Cycle Calendar {#h-les-etf-et-les-investisseurs-institutionnels-brouillent-le-calendrier-des-cycles}

However, this regularity is not universally accepted.

Fidelity, one of the world's leading asset managers, recorded 17 new records of low volatility on Bitcoin in January 2026.

This situation is all the more unusual as it appeared just a few months after the previous price record. In previous cycles, volatility generally increased with Bitcoin until the peak.

For Fidelity, this low volatility is explained in part by the size and liquidity that Bitcoin has now achieved.

As of January 30, 2026, American spot ETFs held 1.3 million bitcoins, accounting for 6.4% of the circulating supply. By adding publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC, ETFs and these corporate treasuries represent nearly 12% of the supply.

Bitwise and Grayscale also suggest that ETFs and the gradual arrival of institutional investors have reduced the impact of halving in the cycle.

Bitcoin is thus operating under conditions quite different from those of the 2017 and 2021 cycles.

Peaks are flattening, but the bottom calendar remains resilient {#h-peaks-are-flattening-but-the-bottom-calendar-remains-resilient}

A study published by Benjamin Cowen on May 29, 2026, brings an important nuance. By comparing 4 halving cycles, he finds that peaks are becoming progressively lower from one cycle to the next, while bottoms evolve within a much tighter range.

In other words, cycles are gradually losing amplitude, but their timing could maintain a certain regularity.

This study remains descriptive. It allows for statistical observation of cycle evolution, without determining a bottom price or portfolio risk on its own.

October will tell if the 4-year cycle still holds {#h-october-will-tell-if-the-4-year-cycle-still-holds}

One unknown remains: Cowen's count provides a period without offering a precise level. His price estimates have varied over the months, from the $40,000 range to the low $50,000s.

According to him, there is about a 50% chance that the bottom will occur in October, with other scenarios spreading over the following months until January. He therefore recommends spreading purchases over several months rather than targeting a specific date.

Other models arrive at a similar timeframe. A model based on a 364-day interval between a peak and the next bottom also places the next bottom around October 5, 2026.

Another method, based on a 500-day rule around halvings, opens an accumulation window in early December.

These methods rely on different calculations but point to the same quarter.

Day 1,432 will fall on October 23, 2026. The coming months will thus reveal whether this regularity holds in a market where ETFs and institutional players now occupy a significant position.

Some investors are working their capital while waiting for the bottom {#h-some-investors-are-working-their-capital-while-waiting-for-the-bottom}

Cowen recommends keeping part of one's capital available during mid-term years, so it can be used if a bottom emerges.

Some investors choose to allocate part of this capital to stablecoins and make it work during this period. DeFi strategies allow for targeting double-digit returns on this portion of the portfolio, regardless of Bitcoin's evolution.

The rest of the portfolio can thus maintain its market exposure while this pocket seeks to generate its own yield.

Selecting protocols, understanding their mechanisms, and tracking their evolution requires time and solid knowledge.

The Club 25% is a private club of 150 investors who manage their savings in stablecoins via DeFi, aiming for 15 to 25% per year, without trading, without volatility, dedicating just a few hours per quarter.

How it works in practice:

• A public portfolio of $100,000 managed in real-time: all decisions are documented and explained.
• DeFi opportunities analyzed and audited: you follow step-by-step video guides to invest in protocols selected for their robustness.
• Total sovereignty over your funds: you remain in control of your capital, with no third party having access to your wallet.

👉 Discover the Club 25% {#h-decouvrir-le-club-25}

The Cowen counter will be cut off at the end of October, while the 364-day counter will end a few weeks earlier. Until then, part of the capital may remain available for the next Bitcoin movement, while another part may already be generating returns in stablecoins.