Exports: The First Effects of Agreements with the US and the EU Emerge, with Beef as the Star Product

Trade agreements with the United States and the European Union (EU) are beginning to yield their first fruits for Argentina in terms of exports, according to private analysts, although it is still premature to draw definitive conclusions. Beef leads the growth in sales to these destinations.

In the second quarter of 2026, Argentine exports grew by 30% compared to the same period last year. For Gerardo Alonso Schwarz, Chief Economist at IERAL NEA, this was the result of a combination that included sectoral factors, international factors, and general measures to simplify foreign trade, which "helped reduce transaction costs, the time to supply key inputs for production, and logistical and administrative costs while increasing profit margins for domestic productions."

However, he also perceived some effects from the recent trade agreements signed by the government. Regarding the deal with the US, the specialist explained that, although it has not yet come into effect, it includes a "increase in the quota for Argentine beef imports from the US formalized through another instrument (an executive proclamation from the President of the United States) for immediate application."

The boom in beef exports to the US

In this regard, he detailed that, during the first six months of 2026, Argentine sales to the United States of "Frozen Beef" increased by 175% (+USD 193 million) and "Chilled Beef" recorded an increase of 122% (+USD 48 million).

In the same vein, Federico Bernini, an economist at the Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy (IIEP) of UBA, highlighted in conversations with Ámbito that, from the agreement with the US, the performance of beef, which is "flying".

A recent report from IIEP indicated that exports of differentiated goods (by physical characteristics, design, brand, or reliability), which reflect "a more sophisticated export structure, with greater possibilities of generating knowledge spillovers and higher growth prospects in the future," rose by 18% year-on-year (+USD 847 million) in the second quarter. One-third of that increase (+USD 278 million) was generated by shipments of beef and fish.

While part of that rise was caused by higher international beef prices, the report also focused on the growth of beef sales to the United States, driven by the temporary expansion of the tariff quota. "Since February 2026, the United States has granted Argentina an additional quota of 80,000 tons, distributed in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 tons, which added to the pre-existing quota of 20,000 tons," he elaborated.

Exports to the EU that have risen the most since the agreement came into effect

On the other hand, IERAL analyzed the behavior of exports to the European Union since May 1, when the provisional application of the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union began.

Specifically, the largest increases during these two months, compared to the same two-month period in 2025, were observed in "Sunflower Seeds" (+$160 million), "Chilled Beef" (+$27 million), "Citrus Fruits" (+$22 million), "Sunflower Oil" (+$20 million), and "Mollusks" (+$17 million).{#p-1787185162908-20358}

Alonso Schwarz clarified that "the results should be interpreted as preliminary signals and not as a definitive estimate of their impact" and that part of the increases are influenced by "the facilitation of foreign trade and the international context (especially in the case of 'Sunflower Seeds')." Nevertheless, he assured that "several products show increases far exceeding the overall growth of Argentine exports" and that the data "begin to show the potential dynamizing effect of greater international insertion, with effects in all regions due to the geographical distribution of productive sectors."{#p-1787179920496-91625}

For his part, Bernini did not dare to assert that the growth of meat sales to the "Old Continent" is due to the agreement and "if it is, the impact is small," although he identified positive effects in other products such as honey, classified as a "non-differentiated" good by the IIEP. It is worth adding that, in addition to the mentioned contribution of meat, exports of goods with higher added value were also boosted by shipments of pick-ups to countries in the region, as well as by increases in wines and cheeses.{#p-1787180069536-7323}

Exports are on track to exceed $100 billion in 2026: a combination of causes and a central challenge {#p-1787182520331-74721}

Like the IERAL, the IIEP emphasized that agreements must be accompanied by a policy of facilitating trade exchange. Specifically, the institute celebrated the reduction of withholdings, stating that "export duties act as an imperfect substitute for the rural property tax which, unlike that, reduces the price received for exported production, alters the choice between the external and internal market, and does not distinguish between land income and normal profitability of the activity."{#p-1787181055564-17774}

"For this reason, they distort the incentives to produce and export, especially in marginal areas where the lower productivity of the land makes it easier for some establishments to become unviable," he questioned.{#p-1787185248157-12433}

For the IIEP, exports of differentiated goods "compete with countries that, in general, do not tax their exports and often support them through other instruments" and that "a greater impact of the tax on the production of this type of goods is to be expected" than in the case of commodities.{#p-1787181225016-62900}

The information developed occurs in a general context of record exports, which are on track to exceed $100 billion in 2026, according to an estimate by the consulting firm LCG. Beyond the contribution that liberalization measures and agreements between countries may be having, the entity highlighted the impact of record corn and wheat harvests, the increase in the price of soybean oil, and the boom in oil sales, both due to the strong production level of Vaca Muerta and the price surge resulting from the war in the Middle East.{#p-1787181563927-18918}

As a challenge moving forward, LCG expressed the need to further expand the base of exported products, focusing on differentiated goods and, presumably, those with higher local added value, so that more companies can place products valued by external consumers and investors, and that there will be a greater number of workers (both skilled and unskilled) involved in foreign trade.