Author: Michael Dempsey
Compiled by: ShenChao TechFlow
ShenChao Introduction: This open letter uses sharp irony to expose the reality of the venture capital world: large funds are crushing seed rounds, leaving small funds with no way out due to brand and scale. For early investors and entrepreneurs, this serves as a wake-up call about capital centralization and forces you to rethink how you can survive.
I’m writing this letter to tell you: it’s time to give up. Don’t expect to keep playing, and don’t think you’ll collect management fees anymore. It’s all over.
Large funds are moving down to seed rounds, and they intend to take every deal. A $5 billion fund will now compete with you for 10% to 15% of a two-person company, and they will always win. Founders will choose well-known brands over your small, beautiful fund that might not exist in ten years. Even if the partner responsible for the project announced a new chapter during the B round, just give up.
Everyone knows the only thing that matters is whether you can invest in the best companies globally. With the explosive growth of accessible intelligence, the truly important companies will obviously become fewer. So, while large funds may not do every deal, they will secure those eight truly significant deals each year. Simply put, if you haven’t invested in OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril, or any new lab, you are irrelevant.
In fact, you should tell your existing (likely zombie) portfolio companies to find a way to get acquired by those companies and then shove as much money as possible through SPVs. You can even put their logos on your website (which will shut down in 5 to 10 years due to forgotten renewal).
Once you finish these SPVs, you’ll learn a lesson: now you should focus on growth rounds. Since multi-stage funds are moving down to seed rounds, you should move up to growth rounds. Instead of spending years anxiously pondering which data-less startup might succeed, do something much simpler. Analyze those companies that are clearly going to succeed based on all your existing data. Of course, the price you pay now may seem as high as what you complained about in seed rounds, but a few years later, when they go public and their valuations soar, it will seem cheap. The best part is that the skills from seed rounds naturally transfer to understanding this extremely readable world.
And we now understand that the most successful founders are often the easiest to understand. If a founder doesn’t come from an elite institution, hasn’t won top math competitions, or hasn’t been incubated from an elite company, that’s a clear case of adverse selection. Over the past five years, your only other chance was to hang out with teenagers, and you’ve missed it. You used to get by with the line, "I can identify 'prickly' founders," but you never managed to be smart enough to add the adjective "trauma" to that description. Don’t be too hard on yourself; this happens often.
Now it’s a hard rule: the best founders get the highest prices. And your fund, which is under $10 billion, simply cannot compete with these things: a podcast shot with a RED camera in the style of Denis Villeneuve, a brand new media company. There are also several super PACs, FBO memberships, or any other means to win founders’ loyalty. So giving up is reasonable.
Venture capital has changed; no stone has been left unturned, and thus there is no reason for existence. Just give up.
I want to say, if you don’t give up, make sure to invest all your time and money into AI, because if you don’t bet the entire fund on it, you are irrelevant. It’s like SaaS in 2020, or mentally like Crypto in 2021. AI will reshape every industry, so you shouldn’t invest in any industry.
Look in the mirror. Your view on AGI is correct. It will arrive in the next two to three years, so why bother raising a 10-year fund? The world is changing too fast; who can still consider investing in a software/bio/cybersecurity/tech company? They will be obliterated and crushed by Claude Thanos 3.5 in one blow. You might try to pivot to the war sector, but honestly, if AI founders don’t need your money, those Gundo founders won’t pull you out of the permanent bottom either.
Anyway, I don’t need to keep repeating what we all know. Let me leave you with a lesson from our industry, because the best way to look forward is to look back.
The tech industry teaches us one thing over and over: big companies will destroy newcomers. Innovation comes from those slow-moving but powerful ships. Money is the ultimate differentiator. Fate favors those with similar ideas. So it’s clear that if you don’t try to evolve, compete, or do something slightly different from others, but instead just give up, you’ll be better off.
Good luck,
A soon-to-be obsolete fund manager
This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.














Moderna shares more than doubled on 19 August 2026 after Merck and Moderna said the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene plus KEYTRUDA met its recurrence-free survival endpoint in resected melanoma. This page explains what the result is, why the stock reacted this hard, what is still unknown, which dates come next (presentation and earnings, both unconfirmed), and what a trader can actually do on WEEX — which does not list Moderna; the nearest instrument is the XBI-USDT biotech ETF perpetual. No price targets, no forecasts.















Long-end U.S. Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, pressuring technology, semiconductor, storage, and optical communication stocks and driving a clear cooling in market risk appetite. At the same time, Anthropic’s revenue came in below some bullish expectations, prompting investors to reassess the AI growth narrative; Unitree Robotics officially listed on the STAR Market, extending momentum in robotics and embodied AI; while SpaceX and other commercial space names showed relative resilience. Investors are now focused on tonight’s Federal Reserve minutes for clearer signals on the policy path and broader market sentiment.
