Global Coal Demand to Rise to 8.94 Billion Tons by 2026

In 2026, global demand for coal is expected to increase by 1.2% and reach 8.94 billion tons. The main reason for this change in the energy balance is the conflict in the Middle East. Disruptions in oil and liquefied natural gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz due to the war between the USA and Iran have led to rising energy prices. Countries with excess coal capacity have started to replace gas in electricity generation, which has increased consumption in Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, and other key markets. Market dynamics depend on the situation in the Gulf: if the Strait of Hormuz opens, coal demand may decrease in 2027, while prolonged LNG blockades will continue to drive consumption up. Global coal production in 2026 is expected to slightly decrease but remain above 9 billion tons. China, the largest coal producer, is facing pressure due to safety inspections following a mine accident in May.

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