Net Immigration Drops to 1.3 Million, Officially Shaking American Jobs

The net international migration to the United States has decreased from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in just one year, intensifying the debate over the impact of President Donald Trump's immigration restriction policies on the labor market. While immigration inflow has sharply declined, analyses suggest that it is not clearly linked to an immediate increase in domestic employment and wage growth.

Fortune reported on the 16th, citing Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, that the Trump administration's immigration suppression stance could have adverse effects on the labor market. Zandi explained that when looking at seasonally adjusted data with a 12-month moving average, the unemployment rate for foreign-born workers fell below that of native-born workers by October 2025.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, net international migration is projected to be 1.3 million from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, a decrease of 53.8% from the previous year's 2.7 million. The Census Bureau suggested that if the current trend continues, net international migration could drop to about 321,000 by July 2026.

Net international migration is the difference between the population entering a country and that leaving. A decrease in this figure does not merely reduce the number of immigrants but also affects labor supply, consumption, and local service demand. Earlier, this publication reported analyses indicating that immigration enforcement could burden living costs and local economies.

Brookings updated on January 13, analyzing that net immigration to the U.S. in 2025 could range from -10,000 to -295,000. They also noted a high likelihood that net immigration would remain very low or negative in 2026. This suggests that reduced immigration could lower the baseline for employment growth by decreasing the labor supply itself.

The structure of job categories also complicates simple replacements. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that in 2025, foreign-born workers were more concentrated in service, natural resources, construction, maintenance, production, transportation, and material moving occupations compared to native-born workers. The median weekly wage for foreign-born full-time wage workers was $1,059, while for native-born it was $1,236.

The wages of foreign-born workers were at 85.7% of those of native-born workers. This gap is linked to the fact that foreign-born workers are relatively concentrated in lower-paying and physically demanding jobs. It is difficult to assume that native-born workers can immediately fill these positions under the same conditions.

Zandi told Fortune, "These jobs are generally very difficult, demanding, and require significant physical effort," adding, "Native workers have not done such jobs for quite some time, and at least at the current wage levels, they are not inclined to take them." For native workers to move into these jobs, higher wages would be necessary, but that could disrupt the economic viability of businesses.

Wage indicators are mixed. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the June employment report that the unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage for private non-farm workers rose by 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.5% from the previous year to $37.64. While wages have maintained an upward trend, there are no clear signals of acceleration.

Researchers at the New York Fed analyzed in a May 26 article that trend wage inflation has decreased since its peak in 2021 and has recently stabilized near levels seen in the late 2010s. However, they noted that wage trends in construction and mining have been stronger than overall trends, suggesting that demand for AI data center construction and reduced net immigration could have an impact.

The White House has a different assessment. Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, told Fortune that thanks to President Trump's border security and immigration enforcement policies, the real wages of American workers in key sectors such as construction, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing are rising faster than overall wages.

The U.S. Department of Labor also claimed in its June and July announcements that the 'America first' policy is driving wage improvements and employment growth in manufacturing and construction. This contrasts with the New York Fed's analysis emphasizing the overall slowdown in wage inflation. Current indicators show that the overall wage trends and those in certain sectors are moving differently.

When assessing policy effects, the key is causality. It is confirmed by statistics that the decrease in immigration has reduced the supply of foreign-born workers. However, it cannot be definitively concluded that this directly led to increased native employment or accelerated wages, as official employment indicators and private analyses have not yet converged in one direction.

The U.S. labor market is typically influenced by immigration, sector-specific demand, wage levels, and regional mobility. Sectors that require on-site labor, such as construction, transportation, and services, may find it difficult to change their workforce composition quickly, even with labor shortages, relying solely on wages. Therefore, reduced immigration may first manifest as cost pressures in certain sectors.

The confirmed trends do not lead to a single conclusion. The decrease in immigration has reduced the supply of foreign-born workers and increased wage pressures in some sectors. At the same time, the structure reveals that native workers do not immediately move into the same jobs. The simple equation that reduced immigration directly increases native employment is not confirmed by current indicators.

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