SpaceX Releases $101 Billion in Shares: Impact on Bitcoin

What Changes with the End of SpaceX's Lockup

SpaceX, the aerospace company controlled by Elon Musk, reached the first expiration of its lockup period on its shares this Thursday. In practice, about $101 billion in stocks became tradable for shareholders who had been restricted from selling since previous funding rounds.

The detail of interest to the crypto market: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. At the end of June, this position was worth approximately $1.1 billion. Any strategic movement by the company regarding these assets gains weight at a time when Bitcoin stabilizes above $64,000.

Unlocking events in large private companies often create short-term selling pressure. Shareholders who have waited months or years for liquidity tend to realize some of their gains. The question is whether this behavior could spill over to the Bitcoin reserves held by the company if it seeks to rebalance its cash flow.

Bitcoin Holds Steady at $64,000 While Stock Market Loses Momentum

Bitcoin traded above $64,600, with a marginal increase on the day and a 0.5% rise for the week. According to market analysts, buyers entered strongly during the dip to $62,500 on Monday, pushing the price back above the 50-day moving average.

This behavior suggests that current optimism is concentrated in Bitcoin, rather than the crypto market as a whole. This pattern is typical of the early stages of long-term movements, when institutional capital prioritizes the largest-cap asset before migrating to altcoins. As we have discussed in our ongoing coverage of the cryptocurrency market, this dynamic has repeated in previous cycles, such as the rallies of 2020 and 2023.

Altcoins Confirm This Mixed Scenario. Ethereum rose 1% to $1,904 but has accumulated a decline of 0.7% over seven days. XRP fell nearly 3% to $1.04. Solana dropped 1%, near $74. The positive highlight was HYPE, the token from Hyperliquid, which advanced 4% for the week.

The Macro Scenario Complicates: Chipmakers Retreat and Gold Advances

The backdrop in traditional markets has become less favorable. The MSCI All Country World Index halted a streak of five consecutive gains, retreating 0.2%. The main driver of the decline was chip manufacturers, with significant losses on both sides of the Pacific.

South Korea's Kospi, considered a barometer for AI-related trade, fell 4.4%. SK Hynix and Samsung led the losses. For those following the intersection between technology and financial markets, the signal is one of caution: when the semiconductor sector retreats, historically, risk assets lose buyer appetite.

Futures for the S&P 500 and European markets, however, indicated a slight increase, suggesting that the American market is still trying to detach from Asian pessimism.

Gold rose 0.4% and reached its strongest level since June. Investors reduced bets on interest rate hikes, which naturally benefits non-yielding assets like the precious metal and, by extension, Bitcoin. Brent fell below $80 per barrel after Iran announced an agreement with Oman regarding navigation routes in the Strait of Hormuz, easing geopolitical risk premiums.

SoftBank as a Barometer for Private Investment in AI

Another significant event for the markets is the release of SoftBank's results, scheduled for this Thursday. The relevance goes beyond the balance sheet: the Japanese group has invested $34.6 billion in OpenAI through Vision Fund 2 since September 2024 and controls ARM, a chip manufacturer for mobile devices and AI data centers.

SoftBank's numbers serve as a kind of health indicator for the private side of investment in artificial intelligence. If the group shows solid results, the market tends to interpret that the AI thesis still supports high valuations. If there are downward revisions, it could weigh on global risk sentiment, including crypto.

As we have analyzed in previous articles about the relationship between traditional markets and digital assets, Bitcoin has shown an increasing correlation with the risk appetite of institutional investors. Large movements in private markets, such as SpaceX lockups and SoftBank earnings, influence this appetite indirectly but measurably.

What to Watch in the Coming Days

The intersection of events this week creates a scenario that deserves attention. On one hand, Bitcoin demonstrates technical resilience, with buyers appearing on corrections and the price remaining above relevant averages. On the other hand, the macro environment has become more ambiguous, with the technology sector under pressure and the unlocking of $101 billion in SpaceX shares adding a variable of uncertainty.

The position of 18,712 BTC held by SpaceX is relatively small compared to the total Bitcoin market, which exceeds $1.2 trillion in capitalization. Still, selling movements by a corporate holder of this size could create a cascading effect on market sentiment, especially if combined with profit-taking in technology stocks.

For investors who follow both traditional and crypto markets, the message is clear: the interconnection between these universes has never been more evident. The same lockup that interests venture capital and private equity investors has a direct impact on the narrative of institutional adoption of Bitcoin.