TD Cowen: The probability of the cryptocurrency market structure bill passing this year is only one in three

According to The Block, Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, expressed that the outlook for the passage of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "CLARITY Act," is "increasingly pessimistic," with only a one-third chance of passing this year. He pointed out that the recent compromise proposal regarding stablecoin yields is "insufficient" to advance the bill, as it fails to meet the demands of crypto platforms like Coinbase and does little to alleviate banks' concerns about core deposit outflows.

Seiberg believes that the bill could only pass if Congress ignores the objections from Coinbase and the banking industry and forcefully pushes through the compromise proposal, but this would be an exception rather than the norm. He anticipates that if the bill makes any progress, it is most likely to occur at the end of July, just before the August recess. Congress is currently in a two-week Easter recess.