"There Are Small Pockets of Growth". When Will Altseason Arrive

Over the past week, the crypto market has been sending mixed signals. The open interest in perpetual futures for altcoins has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time since December 2024. However, key indicators remain at levels far from a full altseason.

While Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range of $78,000 to $80,000 since August 21, the rest of the market, including smaller cryptocurrencies, has shown noticeable activity. From the beginning of the month to September 8, the market capitalization of altcoins outside the top 10 exceeded $209 billion, increasing by more than 7%. Since the beginning of August, this figure has risen by 30% (Bitcoin has increased by 26%).

This situation is viewed by many market participants as a possible beginning of a trend for growth in cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (altcoins). As Alice Liu, head of research at Coinmarketcap, noted for Cointelegraph: "The market is just starting to shift from Bitcoin to altcoins."

"But right now we do not have a full altseason — there are small pockets of growth that are rotating very quickly at the moment," Liu added.

Altseason is a slang term used by crypto traders to describe a market phase when alternative cryptocurrencies begin to rise faster than Bitcoin simultaneously. During such periods, capital flows from BTC into riskier coins that show higher returns.

In previous market cycles, including in 2017 and 2021, such phases were accompanied by multi-month rallies, during which many altcoins saw increases of tens or even hundreds of times, significantly outperforming Bitcoin in terms of returns.

Traditionally, altseason is calculated by comparing the returns of Bitcoin with those of altcoins. For example, the crypto market data aggregator Coinmarketcap (like several other platforms with slight methodological differences) uses its indicator — the Altcoin Season Index.

It is calculated as the return of Bitcoin relative to the 100 largest altcoins over 90 days. If 75 of them outperform BTC, this situation is defined as the onset of altseason.

The index on September 8 was 42, which is about half of the required level for the onset of altseason. However, it is still above the value of 23 from September 1, which is a near-year minimum for the Coinmarketcap indicator.

The beginning of the month looks more like a rebound after weak dynamics in recent months. Data from analytics firm Glassnode confirms the locality of growth. They compared the prices of crypto assets at the time when Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $126,000 in October.

BTC is trading 36% below the October 2025 peak, while the median value of crypto assets from the top 200 by market capitalization is 58% lower. The only sector that has surpassed levels from that period is the privacy coin sector, which has grown by 213%.

Among the 25 largest assets, only four exceed their prices from October: ZEC, HYPE, XMR, and WBT; two of them belong to the sector of anonymous cryptocurrencies (ZEC and XMR). Hyperliquid (HYPE), as Glassnode writes, "is the story of a single player," which surged by 85%. Meanwhile, the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector has lost 46% over the year. All major cryptocurrencies, from Ethereum (ETH) to Dogecoin (DOGE), remain below their peaks.

And "only 25 out of 200 cryptocurrencies have shown growth over the year," while the median value shows a decline of 55%. Nevertheless, Glassnode indicated that over 90% of the 200 largest cryptocurrencies have shown growth over the past 30 days. They clarified that the "range of returns" during this time is the largest since November 20, 2025.

According to Coinalyze data on the growth of open interest in perpetual futures, altcoin indicators have surpassed Bitcoin for the first time since December 2024.

The last time such a picture was observed was when Bitcoin first tested the $100,000 mark. And while this does not guarantee future movements in cryptocurrency prices, the dynamics of that month led to a subsequent correction of BTC to $80,000 in January 2025. After which the price fell to $75,000 before continuing to rise to a new historical peak of $126,000 per BTC coin.

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