TRON Weekly Industry Report: This Week's Non-Farm Payrolls May Test BTC Support at $62,200, Analyzing Morpho's Role in Creating On-Chain Fixed Rate Credit Markets

I. Outlook

1. Summary of Macroeconomic Factors and Future Predictions

This week, the global macro market focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, inflation trends, and economic growth expectations. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its July meeting, with policymakers continuing to seek a balance between "controlling inflation" and "avoiding excessive economic slowdown." Market attention has shifted to the impact of future economic data on the pace of interest rate cuts, with the U.S. labor market, inflation levels, and consumer performance becoming core indicators for assessing monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, economic performance among major global economies has shown divergence, with the European economy still facing growth pressures, while some emerging markets continue to stimulate their economies through interest rate cuts and easing policies. Overall, the market remains in a policy waiting period under a high interest rate environment, with the dollar, treasury yields, and global risk assets fluctuating due to changes in macro expectations.

In the coming week, the market will focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data, unemployment rates, manufacturing and service sector data, as well as subsequent inflation-related indicators, which will further influence market judgments on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies. If the labor market continues to cool and inflation pressures ease further, the market may raise expectations for future monetary easing; however, if economic data performs strongly or inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve may extend the duration of its restrictive interest rate policy. Additionally, global trade policies, geopolitical risks, and changes in fiscal policies of major economies will continue to be important factors affecting market sentiment, with the macro market expected to revolve around the "economic resilience versus policy shift expectations" game in the coming week.

2. Market Movements and Warnings in the Cryptocurrency Industry

This week, the cryptocurrency market maintained a weak oscillating trend overall, with macro factors and Federal Reserve policy expectations remaining the main influences. BTC opened near $63,674 on July 27, rebounding to $64,777 (July 30) during the week, before falling back to around $62,820 on July 31, oscillating within the range of $62,000 to $65,000, continuing to face pressure from previous highs. The market has been primarily influenced by ETF fund flows, interest rate expectations, and declining risk appetite, with investors remaining cautious after the FOMC. ETH has underperformed BTC, with prices continuing to operate in the range of $1,800 to $1,900, and funding exposure to assets outside the mainstream has contracted. Altcoins have generally followed the market's adjustments, with high market cap public chains and infrastructure assets like SOL, AVAX, and LINK showing relatively strong liquidity, while popular sectors such as AI, DePIN, and RWA have shown significant differentiation, with some tokens that had previously risen sharply experiencing profit-taking, leading market funds to further concentrate on BTC, stablecoin yields, and institutional assets.

In the coming week, the market will focus on signals from the Federal Reserve, dollar trends, and changes in institutional fund flows. If BTC can stabilize in the $64,000 to $65,000 range and accompanied by ETF fund inflows, the market may rebound towards the $66,000 to $68,000 area; however, if it breaks below the $62,000 support, it may further test around $60,000. For ETH, the short-term key support level is at $1,800; if funds flow back and break through $1,900 to $2,000, it may drive the recovery of Layer 2, DeFi, and staking ecosystems; otherwise, it may continue to maintain a weak oscillating trend. For altcoins, it is expected that the short-term will still be dominated by structural trends, with sectors like AI Agent, RWA, PayFi, and stablecoin infrastructure that have real application narratives likely to continue attracting funding, while small-cap tokens lacking fundamental support will still face liquidity pressures.

3. Industry and Sector Hotspots

This week, the hotspots in the cryptocurrency industry mainly focused on PayFi, RWA, AI infrastructure, DeFi risk management, and institutional-level financial infrastructure, with funds continuing to concentrate on infrastructure projects with real commercial landing capabilities.

RWA and institutional finance remain core sectors, with projects like Securitize, Gauntlet, and Morpho continuously promoting the on-chain transformation of traditional assets and yield strategy optimization, shifting market focus from mere asset tokenization to a combination model of "RWA + DeFi yield layer." The AI + Crypto direction continues to heat up, shifting focus from AI Agent concepts to AI Agent payments, data assets, and automated financial execution infrastructure, promoting the development of on-chain smart economies.

In terms of DeFi infrastructure, risk management, yield optimization, and on-chain asset management have become important entry points for institutional funds. Projects like Gauntlet provide institutional-level management capabilities for lending protocols and yield vaults through quantitative models, automated strategies, and risk control systems; at the same time, the PayFi sector continues to develop around stablecoin payments, cross-border settlements, and AI Agent automated payments, becoming an important direction connecting the cryptocurrency market with real business.

II. Market Hotspot Sectors and Potential Projects of the Week

1. Overview of Potential Projects

1.1. Brief Analysis of ACK (Agent Commerce Kit), which raised $18 million in total financing, led by the well-known crypto VC A16z, with follow-on investments from Circle and Breyer Capital—Building the Identity and Payment Standard Layer for the AI Agent Economy

Introduction

ACK (Agent Commerce Kit) aims to establish a unified infrastructure for the interaction between AI Agents and financial systems through open standard protocols and a universal architecture, addressing identity, payment, and regulatory issues faced by AI Agents in digital commercial activities.

Its core includes three major modules:

1. Verifiable Agent Identity
   Utilizing open identity standards and cryptographic mechanisms to bind AI Agents to their underlying individual or institutional owners.
   Ensuring that the actions of Agents have traceability, accountability, and trusted identity verification capabilities.

2. Agent-Native Payments
   Supporting AI Agents to autonomously initiate and execute payments across different payment networks and financial systems.
   Providing verifiable payment receipts through standardized digital receipts, achieving auditability and verifiability of payment results.

3. Integrated Oversight
   Introducing human participation mechanisms in necessary scenarios.
   Supporting compliance reviews, risk control, customer support, and escalation handling for abnormal situations, ensuring that Agents' commercial activities comply with regulatory requirements.

Protocol Mechanism Overview

ACK is an open architecture framework for AI Agent commercial activities, achieving secure, verifiable, and compliant interactions between AI Agents and financial systems through identity verification (ACK-ID) + payment protocol (ACK-Pay) + human oversight mechanisms.

Core Roles
ACK defines six types of core participants:

These roles can be undertaken by independent systems or combined by the same institution.

Two Core Interaction Modes

1. Server-Initiated
   Suitable for:

   • API paid calls
   • MCP service calls
   • AI Agent purchasing resources
     Process:
     Core Logic:
     Pay first → Deliver service later

2. Client-Initiated
   Suitable for:

   • Paying bills
   • E-commerce settlements
   • Known payment obligations
     Process:
     Core Logic:
     Generate payment demand first → Complete payment later

ACK Receipt (Payment Receipt)

ACK introduces a unified standard for digital receipts.
Features:

• Based on Verifiable Credential (VC)
• Cryptographically verifiable
• Auditable
• Tamper-proof
  Function:
  Equivalent to standardized electronic invoices and payment receipts in the AI Agent world.
  After payment completion:
  Payment Service → Receipt Service → ACK Receipt
  Ultimately serves as proof of payment.

Human-in-the-Loop

ACK does not allow Agents to operate completely autonomously.
It reserves regulatory interfaces for human-machine collaboration:

• Operational Oversight
  For example:
  • Large payment reviews
  • Suspicious transaction reviews
  • Risk control
• User Authorization
  For example:
  • When exceeding payment limits
  • During sensitive operations
    Requires manual confirmation from the user.

Implementation Flexibility

ACK does not specify a particular technology stack.
Organizations can freely choose:

• Bank payment systems
• Credit card networks
• Stablecoin payments
• Blockchain networks
  As long as they adhere to:
• ACK-ID identity standards
• ACK-Pay payment standards
• ACK Receipt receipt standards
  They can achieve interoperability.

ACK essentially builds a unified commercial protocol layer for the AI Agent economy:

It aims to address the three most critical issues in the large-scale commercialization of AI Agents:

• How do Agents prove their identity?
• How do Agents complete payments?
• How do Agents prove that payment has been made?

This will enable AI Agents to participate in digital business activities safely and reliably, just like enterprises or individuals.

Tron Commentary

The advantage of ACK lies in the fact that it does not build a separate payment network or identity system, but rather attempts to establish a set of universal commercial standards for the AI Agent economy. Through ACK-ID (identity authentication), ACK-Pay (payment protocol), and ACK Receipt (verifiable receipt), it achieves the standardization and interoperability of Agent identity, payments, and transaction credentials, allowing different Agents, enterprises, payment institutions, and financial systems to collaborate under a unified framework. It also retains a Human-in-the-Loop mechanism, balancing automation and compliance, with strong openness and industry adaptability.

Its disadvantage is that ACK itself resembles a protocol framework and standard layer rather than directly providing liquidity, payment networks, or user access points. Its value heavily relies on the widespread adoption by ecosystem participants such as payment service providers, identity providers, and AI Agent platforms. Additionally, cross-institutional identity authentication, payment settlement, and regulatory collaboration involve complex legal and compliance requirements, and differing regulatory standards across regions may also affect its global implementation speed.

2. Key Projects of the Week

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**2.1. Detailed Overview of Total Financing of $204.4 Million, Led by Renowned VCs such as Paradigm, A16z, and Ribbit Capital, with Follow-on Investments from Coinbase, Pantera, and Hashkey—Building the Underlying Infrastructure for On-Chain Fixed-Rate Credit Markets: Morpho Midnight**

Introduction

Morpho Midnight is a non-custodial fixed-rate lending protocol deployed on the EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine).

The protocol is built around isolated markets, each characterized by:

• Immutable
• Permissionless creation
• Fixed maturity date

Its lending mechanism is realized through the trading of Credit Units and Debt Units. The yield structure of these units is similar to zero-coupon instruments, and settlement occurs at market maturity.

Participants trade by posting or accepting offers. Unlike traditional lending protocols:

• No funds need to be locked when making an offer
• Liquidity is only actually called upon at final settlement

Thus, market makers can provide quotes for multiple markets simultaneously without needing to lock up large amounts of capital in advance, significantly improving capital utilization efficiency.

In terms of market structure, Morpho Midnight supports:

• Single-Collateral Markets
• Multi-Collateral Markets

Additionally, the protocol supports access control through Gates to meet specific market compliance or participation restrictions.

Core System Architecture Analysis

1. Introduction (Project Positioning and Design Philosophy)

Core Content

Midnight is a fixed-rate lending protocol launched by Morpho, aimed at solving the issues of interest rate volatility, liquidity fragmentation, and capital efficiency faced by traditional pooled lending (such as Aave, Compound, etc.).

Its core design includes:

• Fixed-rate lending
• Fixed maturity date
• Isolated markets
• Permissionless market creation
• Non-custodial architecture

Unlike traditional liquidity pools, Midnight delegates risk management, market selection, and asset allocation to market participants rather than the protocol itself.

2. Fixed-Maturity Lending Markets

Markets (Market Mechanism)

Once each market is created, it is permanently fixed:

• Loan Token (lending asset)
• Maturity time
• Collateral asset type
• Risk control parameters

These cannot be modified.

Credit Unit & Debt Unit

Midnight does not record traditional lending positions but trades two standardized units:

Credit Unit (Credit Unit)

• Represents the right to future payments
• Belongs to the lender

Debt Unit (Debt Unit)

• Represents future repayment obligations
• Belongs to the borrower

Essentially similar to a zero-coupon bond, settled at face value upon maturity.

Fungibility

All Credit and Debt are accounted for uniformly at the market level.

Therefore:

• There are no point-to-point lending relationships
• Positions generated at different times can be fully merged

This improves liquidity.

Early Exit

Borrowers and lenders do not need to wait until maturity.

They can:

• Lenders sell Credit Units
• Borrowers buy back Debt Units

This allows for early liquidation and exit.

3. Offer-Based Markets

Offer (Quotation Mechanism)

Midnight does not use order books or liquidity pools.

Market makers publish:

• Interest rates
• Prices
• Maximum transaction sizes

To form Offers.

The offers themselves:

Do not require locking funds

Only call upon funds when a transaction is completed.

Maker Callback (Dynamic Fund Scheduling)

Funds are only extracted upon transaction completion.

For example:

• Funds remain in Morpho Blue earning yields
• Automatically extracted when the offer is executed

This improves capital utilization.

Multi-Market Offers

The same liquidity can serve multiple markets simultaneously.

For example:

As long as the total transaction volume does not exceed 10 ETH.

This effectively alleviates liquidity fragmentation.

Routing (Routing Mechanism)

The protocol does not facilitate matching.

Routers are responsible for:

• Searching for optimal offers
• Comparing liquidity across different markets
• Selecting the best transaction path

The entire process occurs off-chain.

Tick Structure (Quotation Levels)

Midnight adopts a fixed Tick grid.

Purpose:

• Prevent minor price competition
• Enhance market depth
• Ensure offer quality

Similar to the minimum quotation unit of traditional exchanges.

4. Liquidations

Maximum Debt (Maximum Borrowing Limit)

Supports multi-collateral markets.

Maximum borrowing capacity:

Collateral value × LLTV

The total value of all collateral determines the borrowing limit.

Liquidation Incentive

When a position is unhealthy:

• Liquidators repay part of the debt
• Receive discounted collateral

The size of the incentive is determined by market parameters.

Unhealthy Liquidation

When:

Debt > Maximum borrowing capacity

It can trigger liquidation.

Characteristics:

• Only the portion needed to restore health is liquidated
• The entire position will not be liquidated directly

This protects borrowers.

Overdue Liquidation

Even if the position is healthy:

If repayment is still not made after maturity,

It can also be liquidated.

Using a similar:

Dutch Auction mechanism to gradually increase liquidation rewards.

This avoids excessive penalties for borrowers.

Bad Debt Handling

If collateral is insufficient to cover the debt:

Bad debt is generated.

Midnight's handling method:

Immediately recognize the loss

Proportionally reduce the lender's Credit

This avoids long-term concealment of bad debts.

5. Access-Control Gates

Midnight supports market-level permission control.

Enter Gate

Controls:

Who can enter the market.

But does not prevent exit.

Ensures that funds are not locked.

Liquidator Gate

Controls:

Who is eligible to participate in liquidation.

Applicable to:

• Institutional markets
• Whitelist markets
• Compliance markets

6. Authorizations

Midnight provides a unified authorization model.

Users can authorize third parties to manage all Midnight account statuses on their behalf, including:
* Borrowing
* Repayment
* Adjusting positions

However, the protocol does not support fine-grained permission management. For more complex permission controls, external contracts must be implemented.

7. Fees

The protocol charges two types of fees.
Settlement Fee
This fee is charged for each transaction. Characteristics include:
* Related to the remaining term
* The longer the term, the slightly higher the fee

The annualized cap is approximately 0.5%.

Continuous Fee
Charged to lenders. Characteristics include:
* Accumulated over time
* Deducted from Credit earnings

The annualized cap is 1%.

**Tron Commentary**

The advantage of Morpho Midnight lies in its introduction of traditional fixed-income market logic into on-chain lending. By utilizing fixed interest rates, fixed maturity dates, and Credit/Debt Unit models, it provides borrowers with predictable financing costs and lenders with clear return expectations. Additionally, it employs an Offer-Based mechanism, allowing market makers to quote across multiple markets without locking funds in advance, and shares liquidity through Callback and Multi-Market Offer, significantly enhancing capital efficiency and alleviating liquidity fragmentation issues. Furthermore, it continues the isolated market structure of Morpho Blue, supporting multiple collateral types, permission controls (Gate), and customized markets, making it more suitable for institutional and professional credit market demands.

Its disadvantage is that the overall design is more complex compared to traditional DeFi lending protocols. Liquidity discovery relies on off-chain quotes and routing networks, making the user experience less intuitive than pooled lending platforms like Aave. Additionally, fixed-term markets inherently bring about maturity management, rollovers, and liquidity dispersion issues, leading to a higher dependency on market makers and professional liquidity providers. The early market depth and activity will directly impact the protocol's efficiency.

III. Industry Data Analysis
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### 1. Overall Market Performance

1.1. Spot BTC vs ETH Price Trends

BTC


ETH


IV. Macroeconomic Data Review and Key Data Release Points for Next Week
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### I. Macroeconomic Data Review for This Week

**United States: Economic Growth Slows but Inflation Pressures Persist, Market Continues to Focus on Federal Reserve Policy Path**

This week, the core focus of U.S. macroeconomic data was on economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. The U.S. GDP growth rate for the second quarter recorded 1.5%, a slowdown from the first quarter, primarily due to increased imports. However, consumer spending and investments related to AI remain resilient, indicating that the U.S. economy is not in a significant recession.

Regarding inflation, the PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve monitors, remains above the long-term target of 2%. The market continues to assess the impact of energy prices, tariffs, and wage pressures on the subsequent inflation decline path.

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its July meeting, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, there are internal disagreements regarding the future policy direction, with some members leaning towards further tightening. Market focus is shifting to upcoming employment and inflation data to gauge the likelihood of rate cuts or maintaining high rates.

**Europe: Inflation Reheats, Rate Cut Expectations Suppressed**

Eurozone inflation data for July shows that the overall CPI rose to 2.9%, higher than previous levels, primarily driven by rising energy prices. Service sector inflation remains high, limiting the European Central Bank's future policy space.

Although the Eurozone economy maintained growth in the second quarter, the recurring inflation has increased market concerns regarding the European Central Bank's pace of further easing. In the short term, the market is focused on whether energy prices and wage growth will push inflation pressures higher again.

### II. Key Macroeconomic Data Release Points for Next Week

**United States**

**Early August: Nonfarm Payrolls**

The market will focus on:
* New job additions
* Unemployment rate
* Average hourly wage growth

Employment data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate judgments. If employment shows a significant cooling, it may enhance market expectations for rate cuts; if employment remains strong, it may push rates to remain high for a longer period.

**ISM Manufacturing PMI**

Key observations include:
* Manufacturing sector sentiment
* Business order conditions
* Changes in cost pressures

This data will be used to determine whether the momentum of U.S. economic growth continues to slow.

**Initial Jobless Claims**

Focus on marginal changes in the U.S. job market as an important reference indicator ahead of nonfarm data.

V. Regulatory Policies
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**United States**

Progress on the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill is hindered: Uncertainty surrounds the advancement of the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure Bill) in the U.S. Senate, with disputes focusing on regulatory authority division, consumer protection, and the impact of stablecoin-related interests. Market expectations for short-term passage have declined.

Stablecoin regulation remains a policy focus: Discussions in the U.S. continue to revolve around stablecoin issuance rules, reserve requirements, and the boundaries of bank system participation, but no new significant regulations were introduced this week.

**European Union**

MiCA enters the adjustment phase post-implementation: This week, the main focus is on market adjustments between platforms that have obtained MiCA licenses and those that have not completed compliance, shifting regulatory focus from legislation to the actual operational compliance of CASPs (Crypto Asset Service Providers).

**Other Major Markets**

No significant new regulatory policies were introduced this week: Regions such as the UK, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore continue to advance existing digital asset regulatory frameworks, but no new policies impacting the industry landscape were released between July 27 and August 1.