USDA Raises Grain Harvest Forecast for Ukraine but Lowers Export Estimates

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its production estimate for grains in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year in its August report, but has lowered its export forecast. The wheat harvest forecast has been increased by 1.4 million tons to 25.4 million tons, while exports have been reduced by 1 million tons to 13.5 million tons. The production estimate for feed grains has been raised by 2.31 million tons to 38.59 million tons, with exports decreased by 1.21 million tons to 24.27 million tons. Corn production is expected to be at 31.8 million tons (+1.8 million tons), with exports decreasing by 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million tons. Due to the reduction in shipments, a buildup of carryover stocks is expected: wheat - 4.80 million tons (+2.27 million tons), feed grains - 7.13 million tons (+3.40 million tons), corn - 4.86 million tons (+2.80 million tons). Analysts link the reduction in export opportunities to the escalation of military actions and logistical disruptions in the waters of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. According to estimates from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine's total agricultural exports could nearly halve from 64.4 million tons to 29.6 million tons. The export forecast for wheat from Russia has been lowered by 1.5 million tons to 46.0 million tons.