Warning Against Overestimating the Clarity Act - Former CFTC Chairman
The Clarity Act's Non-Establishment Will Not Halt Technological Innovation
Former CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Chairman Chris Giancarlo stated in an interview on the U.S. podcast "The Wolf Of All Streets" that technological innovation in the cryptocurrency industry will continue even if the Clarity Act, currently under consideration in Congress, does not pass. He urged the industry not to overestimate the importance of the bill.
The Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Structure Bill) passed the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 294 to 134, but has stalled since the Senate Banking Committee's vote (15 to 9) without reaching a full Senate vote. The Senate is scheduled to recess from August 10 to September 11, leaving only about a week for further deliberation.
Concerns Over the Genius Act and Application of the Bank Secrecy Act
Giancarlo expressed concerns that the bill, like the Genius Act (Stablecoin Regulation Act) expected to pass in 2025, would include cryptocurrency transactions under the monitoring of the Bank Secrecy Act. While the Bank Secrecy Act is intended for anti-money laundering measures, it has led to extensive monitoring of financial transactions, potentially infringing on the right to privacy in private transactions guaranteed by the Fourth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
Regarding the stagnation of the bill, some believe it is due to ethical issues surrounding the Trump administration, but Giancarlo indicated that the White House has its own goals, suggesting that the true reasons are different. He analyzed that many lawmakers are wary of primary challenges from the left within the Democratic Party, leading to strong resistance to the Clarity Act, which seeks to shift control of funding allocation from the government to the private sector.
Regulatory Authority Over Prediction Markets: Conflict Between State and Federal
He also mentioned the regulatory authority over prediction markets. Casinos and sportsbooks are regulated at the state level as they are considered "retail businesses" where the operators set the prices (odds), while prediction markets should be subject to federal regulation as they are "markets" where participants set the prices themselves. He compared this to how Uber overcame resistance from the existing taxi industry to become widespread.
Giancarlo highlighted that the CFTC did not allow any supervised markets to fail during the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing the commission's regulatory capabilities. He suggested that there is a possibility of the issue being contested all the way to the Supreme Court, stating that prediction markets qualify as markets based on the criterion of whether "both sides of the transaction can be chosen," thus justifying federal regulation.
Currently, the CFTC has only one of its five seats filled, including Chairman Michael Selig, who took office in December 2025. Giancarlo stated that innovation will continue regardless of the outcome of the Clarity Act, adding that if the bill fails, the gap will widen between companies that continue to build and those that do not.
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